Dr. Justin Esarey is an Associate
Professor of Politics and International
Affairs at Wake Forest University. He
received his PhD in Political Science from
Florida State University in 2008 following
a BA in Political Science and BS in
Economics from Bowling Green State
University in 2002. His area of
specialization is political methodology,
especially hypothesis testing and the
scientific ecosystem. His current
substantive projects study the
relationship between corruption and female
participation in government.
Dr. Esarey is currently co-editor of PS:
Political Science and Politics
and the Principal
Investigator of the International
Methods
Colloquium project.
- Harden, Jeffrey J. and Justin Esarey.
2022. "Introduction to the Symposium on
Teaching Political Methodology." PS:
Political Science and Politics 55(1):
203-205. [journal]
- Esarey, Justin, and Natalie Valdes.
2020. "Unbiased, Reliable, and Valid
Student Evaluations Can Still Be
Unfair." Assessment
& Evaluation in Higher Education.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02602938.2020.1724875.
[journal]
[pdf]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, and Leslie
Schwindt-Bayer. 2019. "Estimating Causal
Relationships Between Women's
Representation in Government and
Corruption." Comparative
Political
Studies 52(11): 1713-1741. [journal]
[pdf]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin and Andrew Menger.
2019. "Practical and Effective
Approaches to Dealing with
Clustered Data." Political Science
Research and Methods 7(3):
541-559. [journal]
[pdf]
[replication
file] [erratum]
- Esarey, Justin, and Andrew R. Wood.
2018. "Blogs, Online Seminars, and
Social Media as Tools of Scholarship in
Political Science." PS:
Political
Science and Politics 51(4):
811-819. [journal]
[pdf]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, and Kristin Bryant.
"Are Papers Written by Women Authors
Cited Less Frequently?" Political
Analysis 26(3): 331-334. [pdf]
[journal]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, and Jane Lawrence
Sumner. 2018. "Marginal Effects in
Interaction Models: Determining and
Controlling the False Positive
Rate." Comparative
Political Studies 51(9):
1144-1176. [journal]
[pdf]
[replication
file] [corrigendum]
- Esarey, Justin. 2018. "What Makes
Someone a Political
Methodologist?" PS:
Political Science and Politics
51(3): 588-596. [journal]
[pdf]
[replication
file] [erratum]
- Esarey, Justin, and Leslie
Schwindt-Bayer. 2018. "Women’s
Representation, Accountability, and
Corruption in Democracies." British
Journal of Political Science 48(3):
659-690. [journal]
[pdf] [online
appendix] [replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin. 2017. "Does Peer
Review Identify the Best Papers? A
Simulation Study of Editors, Reviewers,
and the Scientific Publication Process."
PS: Political Science and Politics
50(4): 963-969. [journal]
[pdf] [replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, and Jacqueline H. R.
Demeritt. 2017. "Political Context and
the Consequences of Naming and Shaming
for Human Rights Abuse." International
Interactions 43(4): 589-618.
[journal]
[pdf]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, and Ahra Wu. 2016.
"Measuring the Effects of Publication
Bias in Political Science."
Research and Politics 3(3): 1-9.
[journal]
[replication
file] [coding
sheets]
- Esarey, Justin. 2016. "Fractionally
Integrated Data and the Autodistributed
Lag Model: Results from a Simulation
Study." Political Analysis
24(1): 42-49. [pdf]
[journal]
[replication
file]
- Berry, William, Jacqueline H. R.
Demeritt, and Justin Esarey. 2016. "Bias
and Overconfidence in Parametric Models
of Interactive Processes." American
Journal
of Political Science 60(2):
521-539. [pdf] [journal]
[replication file]
- Esarey, Justin and Nathan Danneman.
2015. "A Quantitative Method for
Substantive Robustness
Assessment." Political
Science
Research and Methods 3(1):
95-111. [pdf]
[journal]
[replication
file] [software]
- Esarey, Justin, and Jacqueline H. R.
Demeritt. 2014. "Defining and Modeling
State-Dependent Systems." Political
Analysis 22(1): 66-85.
[pdf] [journal]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, and Gina Chirillo.
2013. "'Fairer Sex' or Purity Myth?
Corruption, Gender, and Institutional
Context." Politics and Gender
9(4): 390-413. [pdf]
[journal]
[replication
file] [unrounded
tables] [erratum]
- Esarey, Justin, and Andrew Pierce.
2012. "Assessing Fit Quality and Testing
for Misspecification in
Binary Dependent Variable Models." Political
Analysis 20(4): 480-500. [pdf] [journal]
[software]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, Timothy C. Salmon, and
Charles Barrilleaux. 2012. "Social
Insurance and Income Redistribution in a
Laboratory Experiment." Political
Research
Quarterly 65(3): 685-698. [journal]
[supplement]
[errata and
alternative analysis] [replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, Timothy C. Salmon, and
Charles Barrilleaux. 2012. "What
Motivates Political Preferences?
Self-Interest, Ideology, and Fairness in
a Laboratory Democracy." Economic
Inquiry 50(3): 604-624. [journal]
[replication
file]
- Berry, William, Jacqueline H. R.
Demeritt, and Justin Esarey. 2010.
"Testing for Interaction in Binary Logit
and Probit Models: Is a Product Term
Essential?" American
Journal of Political Science
54(1):248-266. [journal]
[replication
file]
- Ahn, TK, Justin Esarey, and John
Scholz. 2009. "Reputation and
Cooperation in Voluntary Exchanges:
Comparing Local and Central
Institutions.” Journal
of Politics 71(2): 398-413. [journal] [replication
file]
- Ahn, TK, and Justin Esarey. 2008. "A
Dynamic Model of Generalized Social
Trust." Journal of Theoretical
Politics 20: 151-180. [journal]
[supplement]
- Esarey, Justin, Bumba Mukherjee, and
Will H. Moore. 2008. "Strategic
Interaction and Interstate Crises: A
Bayesian Quantal Response Estimator for
Incomplete Information Games." Political
Analysis 16: 250-273.
[journal]
[replication file]
- Esarey, Justin, and N. Valdes. 2022.
"The Past, Present, and Future of
Research on Gender and Corruption."
Forthcoming in Revisiting
Corruption: Emerging Issues, eds.
Chandan Kumar Jha, Ajit Mishra, and
Sudipta Sarangi. London: Routledge. [doi]
[pdf]
- Schwindt-Bayer, Leslie, Justin Esarey,
and Erika Schumacher. 2018. "Gender and
Citizen Responses to Corruption among
Politicians: The U.S. and Brazil.''
In Gender
and Corruption: Historical Roots and
New Avenues for Research, eds.
Helena Stensota and Lena Wagnerud.
London: Palgrave Macmillan. [replication
file] [amazon
link]
- Esarey, Justin. 2017. "Causal
Inference with Observational Data."
Chapter 4 in Analytics, Policy, and
Governance, eds. Jennifer
Bachner, Kathryn Wagner Hill, and
Benjamin Ginsberg. New Haven: Yale
University Press. [pdf]
[replication
file] [amazon
link]
- Esarey, Justin and Maya Dalton. "The
Changing Relationship between Gender and
Corruption." To be included in Gender
and Corruption in Democracies: A
Handbook, eds. Tiffany Barnes and
Emily Beaulieu. Cheltenham: Edward
Elgar. [pdf]
[replication
file]
- Justin Esarey (PI). National Science
Foundation Grant #1423825: "An Online
Methods Colloquium for Quantitative
Methodology in Political Science."
2014-2017. $252,384.
- Justin Esarey (PI). Emory University
Research Committee Grant: “A Formal Test
of Substantive Significance.” $15,400.
- Charles Barrilleaux (PI), Tim Salmon
and Justin Esarey (Co-PIs.) National
Science Foundation Grant #0720055:
"Explaining Preferences for Social
Insurance and Redistribution in a
Laboratory Democracy," 2007-2009.
$108,000.
- clusterSEs
package for R. Calculate p-values and
confidence intervals using
cluster-adjusted t-statistics (based on
Ibragimov and Muller 2010, Journal of
Business and Economic Statistics 28(4)),
pairs cluster bootstrapped t-statistics,
and wild cluster bootstrapped
t-statistics (the latter two techniques
based on Cameron, Gelbach, and Miller
2008, Review of Economics and Statistics
90(3)). Procedures are included for use
with GLM, ivreg, plm (fixed effects),
and mlogit models. URL: https://goo.gl/RgFvYY.
- interactionTest
package for R. Allows researchers to
calculate t-statistics associated with
the Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) false
discovery rate correction when
constructing marginal effects plots for
models with interaction terms (Esarey
and Sumner 2018). Co-authored with Jane
Lawrence Sumner. URL: https://goo.gl/8DGTjb.

- Course Workload Estimator app in
RShiny. Allows instructors and students
to assess how many out-of-class hours of
work per week that a syllabus requires
based on research that studies reading
and writing speeds. Co-authored with
Elizabeth Barre. URL: https://goo.gl/ExxhSk.
This software won the 2017
POD innovation award of the
Professional and Organizational
Development Network in Higher Education.
- heatmapFit
package for R. Generates a fit plot for
diagnosing misspecification in models of
binary dependent variables, and
calculates the related heatmap fit
statistic (Esarey and Pierce, 2012).
Co-authored with Andrew Pierce and
Jericho Du. URL: https://goo.gl/AlJtOS.

- cstar
package for R. Functions that allow a
researcher to examine the robustness of
the substantive significance of their
findings. Implements ideas set out in
Esarey and Danneman (2015). Co-authored
with Nathan Danneman. URL: https://goo.gl/YVp3eV.

- Esarey, Justin. "The Myth That
Democracies Bungled the Pandemic." The
Atlantic (October 4, 2021). URL:
https://bit.ly/2YweQ9Y.
[pdf]
[replication
file]
- Esarey, Justin, and N. Valdes. "Do
Legislative Gender Quotas Reduce
Corruption?" [pdf]
[replication
file]
- Collins, Addison, Justin Esarey, and
Betina Wilkinson. "Gender and Voter
Punishment of Corruption." [pdf]
[replication
file]
- Dalton, Maya and Justin Esarey.
"Measuring Changes in Corruption over
Time." [pdf]
[replication
file]
- Wilkinson, Betina Cutaia, Justin
Esarey, and Addison Collins. "The
Spectrum of Disenchantment: Examining
the Effects of Race and Skin Tone on
Perceptions of Corruption in the US." [pdf]
- Esarey, Justin, and Cynthia Jianwen
Wang. "Corruption, State Legitimacy, and
Political Stability." [pdf]
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